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Is it still a good time to buy?

Better late now than never later.

It’s the question that’s buzzing around real estate offices, mortgage companies, backyard barbecues, water coolers and passing conversations with neighbors.

The short answer is — we think so.

Yes, it is still a good time to buy.

The long answer is more complicated. Consider these four trends to help you as you make your housing buying decisions.

Higher home prices show no signs of reversing course.

Even before the pandemic, the supply of the housing market couldn’t meet the demand. In 2020, COVID-19 affected the housing market just like it did every other industry. However, we’d soon find out that the real estate market was a double-sided coin.

Let’s set the record straight. If you’re expecting the trajectory to result in a housing bubble ready to burst, reminiscent of 2008’s Great Recession, this isn’t that. The market variables that resulted in the 2007-2008 housing market crash don’t exist now. If higher home prices cause are causing you to hesitate, keep in mind that prices will likely continue to rise. Home prices were rising already before the virus, and multiple variables from the pandemic created greater demand in an already competitive market.

With the introduction of social distancing measures, many began to conduct the majority of their lives inside their homes and, unsurprisingly, wanted or needed more space. Many also sought financial security, preferring a traditional equity purchase that still carried relative liquidity amid the health crisis uncertainty. What better way to adapt to the new world than investing in your home: the very place you planned to ride out the epidemic? Many see it as a timely investment vehicle.

Buying gained popularity.

However, many other Americans had the same idea. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic affected the ability and access for individuals to go to work. Companies in the housing industry suffered, as workers were absent due to new mandates among other pandemic-related challenges. As the pandemic wore on, labor and building materials supply chains struggled further.

Earlier, I wrote that, before the pandemic, as well as in its beginning, housing demand had exceeded supply. The difference now is that the supply of home options is extremely low1 due to the factors mentioned above, which have resulted in climbing home prices. In fact, Zillow projects a 17% year-over-year rise in home valuations for 20222.

The effects of the pandemic only added more fuel to a white-hot market. Home prices aren’t going down any time soon, even if their rise slows.


1 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/20/upshot/home-prices-surging.html
2 https://www.zillow.com/research/home-values-sales-forecast-jan-2022-30667/

Interest rates have started correcting to higher levels.3

At the beginning of the pandemic, in the face of a developing national health crisis, the Federal Reserve took action. They pledged (and proceeded) to buy debt and mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) in an effort to help the economy.4 This resulted in an artificially high demand for MBSs, driving down mortgage interest rates. For a time, this helped add stability to the economy. It made it easier access financial resources, investments, and loans — such as mortgages. It’s not surprising that so many individuals decided to pursue homeownership during the pandemic. Demand was already outpacing supply. The lower interest rates made a home purchase that much more attractive, tipping the balance further.

As inflation has risen, so too has the labor market. The Federal Reserve has noticed, and has claimed that they will begin selling some of their balance sheet. This move serves to correct mortgage interest rates back up to normal market levels.5

A more balanced market is good for the economy, in general. However, higher interest rates will only decrease buying power for home buyers. Additionally, home buyers who have waited for prices to fall just may see prices at least hold, if not increase.

See also: Buy Now To Buy More: What Interest Rates Mean For You

The later you buy in 2022 and beyond, the greater your chance for a higher mortgage interest rate.


3 https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2022/01/27/what-rising-interest-rates-mean-for-business/?sh=14586c3e23a1
4 https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/
5 https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20211215a.htm

Rent price increases are breaking records6 and making headlines.

It is well-known that rent prices rise over time. This is due to a variety of factors: inflation, rising utility costs, location value, and the list goes on. With reduced supply of homes and renter instability during the height of the pandemic, rent prices are up 14% year-over-year, with some up over 30% in many major metro areas.7

Renting is a great option for those who want to stay flexible. But for those looking to optimize their finances, it’s helpful to remember that 0% of your rent payment builds your own equity. Since it’s not part of a home investment, you’ll never see any of that money again!

Although a down payment may sting at first, a fixed rate mortgage payment does not increase over time. Compare that to rent, as it continues its daunting upward climb. Renting gives no net worth gain, and leaves you at the mercy of your landlord and binding lease agreement.

In some cases, after the down payment, a mortgage payment may be lower than rent for a comparable space. Be mindful where your money is actually going. You may be able to gain some equity for your housing costs.

See also: Is Buying A Home Really More Expensive Than Renting?


6 https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/rent-prices-all-time-high/
7 https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-december-2021/

The cost of waiting may be higher than you expect.

For many home buyers, the down payment is the hardest obstacle to overcome. With the home price index rising8, it will become increasingly difficult to save enough for a down payment. Down payments are measured as a percentage of home pricing, and are often tens of thousands of dollars. It can be quite a challenge!

Upward trends in demand, interest rates, rent prices, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) means saving could become more difficult. If accounting for normal expenses and goals wasn’t enough, you will also be contending with market forces beyond your control. Should these trends continue, It will be harder to save for a ~12%9 down payment.

See also: Owning A Home May Already Be Within Reach

Depending on your situation, you may need less for a down payment than you think. Building your equity sooner means you could actually benefit from rising home prices. Even in a sellers’ market, getting into a home you can afford now may benefit you in the long run. However, we’d still advise that you exercise due diligence as you determine the best real estate investment for your situation.


8 https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/dow-jones-us-real-estate-index/#overview
9 2021 median down payment: https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2021-home-buyers-and-sellers-generational-trends-03-16-2021.pdf

In the current housing climate, the cost of waiting to make a move in the real estate market will most likely cost you more in the long run.

Buying a home is a long-term decision that should be made with careful consideration. Financial decisions should be strategic. At Benchmark, we provide education to hopeful buyers regarding trends in the market and how they could affect future plans. We are committed to listening to your vision, and getting you the right mortgage for your future success. 

Contact your local Benchmark branch. Contact us today for personalized information. Call me yourself or request a call from me. WeI would be honored to provide you with our famous excellent service for your new loan.

 

Benchmark brings you home.

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Americans confident they can be home owners

More Americans Confident They Can Get Mortgages

The housing slowdown may have been accompanied by an inability for potential homeowners to obtain mortgages, but the latest Fannie Mae National Housing Survey shows movement on the mortgage consumption-front.

For the month of November, 51% of survey respondents said it would now be easier to obtain a mortgage. This larger vote of confidence suggests tighter lending standards may be easing enough to grant more credit access.

Overall confidence in housing is up somewhat, with 14% of those interviewed believing home prices will go up in the next 12 months, a four-percentage point hike from the previous month. Twenty-three percent of survey respondents believe it’s a good time to sell a home, up 5-percentage points from October.

This is the highest rating of confidence since the survey’s inception more than a year earlier, the GSE said. In addition, 67% of the survey respondents said they would buy if they had to move in the near future.

The Fannie Mae November survey, which is the result of 1,001 interviews with Americans, concluded that consumer attitudes towards the economy and housing market are improving.

Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae, noted that 11 of the national housing survey indicators evaluated by Fannie Mae are “at or near their two-and-a-half-year highs.”

About 44% of Americans believe the economy is now on the right track, and only 50% say it’s on the wrong track, which is 25-percentage point decline over the past year. The small gap between those two indicators suggests more improvement in overall economic confidence.

The number of survey respondents who foresee an increase in mortgage rates jumped 4 percentage points to 41%.

Respondents expecting home prices to fall over the next year rose by 4 percentage points to 14% over the previous month, while the number who expect home prices to go up over the next 12 months edged up to 37%.

Americans also seem more confident in their own financial situations, but remain worried the fiscal cliff will put them in worse shape next year. 18%, up 5 percentage points, felt that their personal financial situation would get worse over the next 12 months.

56% of respondents expect their household expenses to remain the same when compared to a year earlier.

Originally posted at HousingWire.com.

Is Now the “Perfect Storm” for Home Buyers?

Barry Habib with Mortgage Market Guide was a guest on the CNBC show Squawk Box yesterday and shared some great insight on why now is the “perfect storm” for homebuyers.

He points to three big reasons all renters should jump into homeownership:

1. Rent rates are increasing in some markets. It is becoming increasingly more affordable to own a home versus renting a similar home.

2. Interest rates have basically bottomed out. Could rates go lower? Yes they could with the announcement of QE3. But money is so cheap to buy a home that it makes sense to buy right now.

3. Tax benefits. On top of the really cheap mortgage money available today you also have several tax benefits of homeownership. The IRS Publication 530 details what can and cannot be deducted.

Watch the video below and leave a comment on your thoughts about the current housing market:

US Home-Buying Season Finally Signaling a Recovery

WASHINGTON (AP) — Five years after the U.S. housing bust sent sales and prices plunging, the spring home-buying season is pointing to a long-awaited recovery.

Reduced prices, record-low mortgage rates, higher rents and an improving job market appear to be emboldening many would-be buyers. Open houses are drawing crowds. A wave of foreclosures is leading investors to grab bargain-priced homes.

And many people seem to have concluded that prices won’t drop much further. In some areas, prices have begun to tick up.

Interviews with more than two dozen potential buyers, sellers, brokers, Realtors and economists suggest that confidence is up and that sales will move slowly but steadily higher.

“The biggest challenge that we’ve had over the past four years is fear — fear that the economy is collapsing, that property values are collapsing, that the world is coming to an end,” says Mark Prather, a broker at ERA Buy America Real Estate in La Palma, Calif. “The fear factor is all but gone.”

Prather says the number of prospective buyers who contacted his company last month was about 35 percent more than a year ago.

The spring buying season got an early lift-off from an uncommonly warm January and February — a winter that was the best for sales of previously occupied homes in five years. Permits to build houses and apartments rose in February to their highest level since 2008.

“People feel much more confident,” said Steve Brown, co-owner of real estate company Irongate Inc. of Dayton, Ohio, who says sales jumped more than 16 percent for the first two months of 2012 over the same period last year. “There’s no question there’s a good feeling in the marketplace.”

Some analysts detected a slight uptick in prices for February and March. CoreLogic, a real estate data firm, says prices for homes not at risk of foreclosure — about two thirds of the market — rose 0.7 percent in February. It was the first increase in four years. Price gains occurred both in some hard-hit areas, such as Phoenix, and some still-thriving areas like New York and Washington.

In Miami, the average sales price has surged 14 percent in the past year, according to Trulia, a real estate data firm. In Phoenix, the average is up 13 percent, in Pittsburgh 9 percent.

Earnings reports Friday from two big banks suggested that more people are taking out mortgages. JPMorgan Chase issued 6 percent more mortgages from January through March than it did a year ago and got 33 percent more applications. Wells Fargo issued 54 percent more mortgages and received 84 percent more applications.

Still, few think the housing industry is nearing a return to full health. For that to happen, a robust job market would be needed. More hiring would give more people the money and job security to buy. That would help boost sales and prices.

Such areas as Atlanta, suburban Las Vegas and central California show few signs of recovery. And in some others — from Seattle to Cleveland — home prices have continued to slip. The average has dropped 9 percent in Seattle over the past 12 months and 7 percent in Cleveland.

But in many parts of the country, including thriving areas of Boston, Dallas and Seattle, confidence is rising along with prices. Among the reasons:

  • Hiring has strengthened. Each month from January through March generated a solid average of 212,000 jobs. Unemployment has sunk from 9.1 percent in August to 8.2 percent. More job security tends to embolden more people to invest in a home. In Dayton, for example, the University of Dayton is hiring for a new engineering research center, General Electric is hiring hundreds of contractors and the nearby Wright-Patterson Air Force Base are expanding.
  • Loans remain cheap. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 3.88 percent. That’s just above the 3.87 percent reached in February — the lowest since long-term mortgages were first offered in the 1950s.
  • Homes are more affordable. Nationwide, home prices are down 34 percent since 2006.
  • Americans are more confident. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan’s survey of consumer confidence rose in March for a seventh straight month to its highest level in 13 months.

Also fueling interest are signs that home values are finally stabilizing. One factor that had slowed purchases after the housing boom ended in late 2006 was fear that a home would lose value soon after its purchase.

But the price declines slowed toward the end of 2011, according to the Wells Fargo/Case-Shiller home price index. And CoreLogic says the average price nationally rose slightly in January and February.

“Unless prices went down, I don’t think we would have ever been able to afford a home,” said John Henschel, 37, an information technology consultant who will move with his family into a five-bedroom house in Wheaton, Ill., in May. “But we feel like prices aren’t going to go back down. We’re confident. So why not?”

When the landlord on their Chicago apartment told them he was selling it, Henschel and his wife decided it was time to buy. The home they bought for nearly $450,000 could have fetched more than $570,000 six years ago, according to housing website Zillow.com.

On a rainy Saturday this month in long-struggling Riverside, Calif., 12 families visited a three-bedroom house priced at $199,999. Ten others stopped by in the first hour of the next day’s open house. By the end of the weekend, two buyers had made offers.

“We’re seeing more buyer activity this spring than we’ve seen in probably four years,” said Liane Thomas, the broker who was showing the house.

Prices in the area could rise in coming months because the supply of homes for sale in Riverside is down — from nearly 19,000 last year to 13,000 in February.

Many potential buyers are hunting for deals in places that were especially hurt by the housing bust. In Sarasota, Fla., which boasts wide sugar-sand beaches, condos are selling for an average of $325,000, compared with more than $550,000 at the height of the boom, said Marc Rasmussen, a broker.

Homes nearing foreclosure account for nearly half of all properties on the market, according to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse survey. That compares with 10 percent in healthy economies. Many are receiving multiple offers because their prices have plunged.

In Phoenix, a foreclosed home offered for $77,000 that had been vandalized received 21 offers last month at or near the asking price — roughly the price it sold for. The average time a home sits on the market in Phoenix has dropped from 114 days last year to 90 days, according to the Cromford Report, a data research group.

In suburban Washington, D.C., Rory Obletz and his wife have been saving to buy after renting for six years. Obletz, 27, failed in two previous bids for single-family homes. He’s hoping a third bid — about $10,000 above the asking price of $399,000 for a home in Silver Spring, Md. — will succeed this month.

“One home we went to, it was under contract by the time we walked out of the house,” Obletz said. “If you really want to get something, you don’t have a lot of time to think about it.”

It isn’t just bargain-hunting families seeking homes. Investors are increasingly buying single-family houses, fixing them up and re-selling them or converting them into rentals.

Investors are out-bidding many first-time buyers on cheaper homes in particular. Sales of homes between $100,000 and $250,000 have jumped nearly 19 percent over the past year. For homes between $250,000 and $500,000, sales are up 13 percent.

More expensive homes, from $500,000 to $750,000, whose sales tend to contribute the most to the U.S. economy, are up a smaller 6.7 percent.

For buyers seeking to move up to a bigger home or to relocate, the toughest challenge is often selling the home they’re in. According to CoreLogic, about 11 million homeowners are “underwater” — they owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth.

Yet for first-timers like Obletz, who have been saving and watching as homes have become more affordable, the time feels right.

“Rent is a little more expensive, and we have the money, so we might as well jump on it,” he says.

_

By ALEX VEIGA, AP Real Estate Writers.

Veiga reported from Los Angeles. Associated Press Writer Tamara Lush in Sarasota, Fla., contributed to this report.

Vacancy Rates Drop to Lowest Since 2006

The national vacancy rate among single-family non-rental homes fell to 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

That’s down from 2.7 percent at the beginning of last year, and the lowest homeowner vacancy rate since early 2006.

Undoubtedly, the decline in vacancies is an offshoot of fewer foreclosures in 2011 combined with a slight uptick in home sales for the year.

RealtyTrac reports foreclosure starts were down 39 percent from 2010. And while new home sales had their worst showing in recorded history, the National Association of Realtors tracked a 1.7 percent annual increase in existing-home sales.

Paul Diggle, property economist with Capital Economics, says it’s another sign that excess inventory – at least the visible inventory – is slowly but surely being cleared. It

“leaves the visible inventory at a level consistent with house prices bottoming out later in the year,” according to Diggle.

The Census Bureau also reported that the nation’s homeownership rate dropped to 66.0 percent – its lowest level in nearly 14 years – as the housing downturn has eaten away at the share of Americans who are willing and able to own their own home.

The fourth-quarter homeownership rate gave up almost all of the previous quarter’s gain, Diggle noted.

“What’s more, despite median mortgage costs being more affordable than ever and early signs that mortgage credit is becoming more available…the seven-year downturn in homeownership may still have further to run,” he warns.

The flipside, Diggles says, is there are more households in the rented sector and fewer properties lacking tenants, which is helping to drive rents, and therefore landlords’ returns, higher.

He expects rental value growth is to hit 3 percent this year and average rental yields to rise to around 5.5 percent.

With house prices still falling for now, Diggles says it will be a while yet before homeownership is once again seen as an essential part of the American Dream, and that’s despite the fact that owning now seems to make greater financial sense than renting.

The drop in the homeownership rate pushed the share of households in rented accommodations up, from 33.6 percent at the beginning of 2011 to 34.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The ratio of homes in the rental sector that were vacant also fell, to 9.4 percent.

(Homeownership and Vacancy Rates Drop article courtesy of DSNews.com)

2012 Homes Sales Looking Up

National Association of Realtors has released their latest home sales information and things are looking up.

According to the “Pending Home Sales Index”, homes under contract are up 7.3%, the second straight month with an increase.

This is the first time since the Homebuyer Tax Credit that the Pending Home Sales Index has gone above 100, a great sign for the market. The best part of these figures is the growth is occurring organically through great affordability and job creation.

So what are the sales trends showing? Lower priced homes are moving quickly while the upper end market is still sluggish. New home sales and new construction starts are both up, a great sign for the months ahead.

Through the broader economy, we are seeing increased job growth from 100,000 per month and may even increase to 150,000 jobs created per month, which will continue to grow the real estate market.

For the full interview with Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, view it below:

Houses Are On Sale Across the Country


InfoGraphic

The graphic depicts pricing of all homes from their ‘peak through current declines’ as per Case Shiller. This index looks at prices in 20 major metropolitan areas.

Each market peaked at different times. Therefore, the InfoGraphic doesn’t cover one segment of time. Here is a site where you can see when each market actually peaked:

http://www.housingviews.com/2011/11/29/how-the-cities-did-in-the-latest-release/how-cities-did-september-2011/

Courtesy of KCMBlog.com.