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Survey Shows Home Prices and Rent Rates Expected to Increase

We report on Fannie Mae’s Quarterly National Housing Survey every ninety days. Fannie Mae also does a monthly survey covering different aspects of the housing market.

Here are some record numbers we found interesting in Fannie Mae’s March report (emphasis added).

  • Thirty-three percent of respondents expect home prices to increase over the next 12 months, the highest level over the past 12 months.
  • The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy rose to 73 percent,the highest level in over a year.
  • Forty-eight percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up, the highest number recorded to date.
  • On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 4.1 percent over the next 12 months, the highest number recorded to date.

Doug Duncan, chief economist of Fannie Mae, capped the report off by stating:

“Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes. Americans’ rental price expectations for the next year continue to rise, reaching their record high level for our survey this month. With an increasing share of consumers expecting higher mortgage rates and home prices over the next 12 months, some may feel that renting is becoming more costly and that homeownership is a more compelling housing choice.”

This article is courtesy of our friends at Keeping Current Matters. 

The Survey Shows Americans Continue Aspiring For Homeownership

Quarterly National Housing Survey Shows that Americans of All Backgrounds Continue to Have Strong Aspirations to Own a Home

Attitudes About Homeownership as an Investment, Financial Constraints, and Mortgage Accessibility May Stand in the Way of Americans’ Purchase Decisions

Pete Bakel | 202-752-2034

WASHINGTON, DC – Fannie Mae’s (FNMA/OTC) latest quarterly National Housing Survey focuses on the state of homeownership aspirations among Americans across all demographic groups. The survey finds that despite the recent housing crisis, most Americans continue to believe that owning their home is preferable to renting it. The data also indicate that while financial constraints and employment concerns may be keeping potential homebuyers on the sidelines in the near term, future improvements in employment and personal finances, a pickup in interest rates in response to stronger economic growth, and stabilizing home prices may move Americans to act on their aspirations in coming years.

  • Across all education levels, Americans say owing makes more sense than renting.  This belief is held consistently across all demographic groups.
  • Nearly two-thirds of current renters say that they will buy a house at some point in the future.
  • Non-financial factors such as safety and quality of local schools continue to be the top reasons for buying a home across all income groups.
  • African-Americans and Hispanics are more likely to cite various benefits, such as buying a home as a way to build wealth, homeownership as a symbol of success, and civic benefits.

“In spite of the impact of the housing crisis on home values and homeownership rates across the country, Americans by and large still hope to become homeowners,” said Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “Some may not be financially positioned to own a home in the near future, but Americans may begin to revisit that aspiration as employment and household balance sheets improve over the coming years.”

“A point of concern for the industry is that some consumers find the mortgage shopping process difficult to navigate,” Duncan continued. “If potential homeowners avoid the process because they believe it to be too complex, we will likely see a continued impact on homeownership rates.”

Overall, certain groups (renters, those with lower levels of education, people with lower incomes, African-Americans, and Hispanics) cite potential difficulties in getting a mortgage. Specifically, those renting today are most likely to cite poor credit, complexity of process, and bad economic times as major reasons not to buy a home.

  • Renters are consistently more likely than mortgage borrowers to think it would be difficult for them to get a home.
  • African-Americans and Hispanics are more likely to indicate that getting a mortgage is difficult, regardless of income level.
  • Groups with lower levels of education are more likely to say it would be difficult for them to get a mortgage than groups with higher levels of education.
  • Renters cite financial reasons as the major factors for not buying a home.
  • Hispanic and African-American renters are most likely to cite bad economic times and overall complexity of process as major reasons not to buy a home.
  • Lower income Americans also are consistently more likely to cite income and credit history as obstacles to getting a mortgage, and are less confident they are getting adequate home loan information.
  • Hispanics are less confident than other groups about receiving information they need to choose the right mortgage.

Moreover, attitudes about homeownership as an investment, financial constraints, and mortgage accessibility may mean that more Americans choose not to act on their aspiration for homeownership, thus potentially leading to lower homeownership rates.

  • The margin of Americans believing homeownership has the highest investment potential has declined over the past several years.
  • At the same time, the perceived safety of owning a home as an investment has trended downward, reaching a low of 63 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011.
  • In turn, groups with higher levels of education and higher incomes are more likely to think buying a home is a safe investment.

The fourth-quarter 2011 National Housing Survey focus on the state of homeownership aspiration is based on more than 3,000 interviews from October 3, 2011 to December 20, 2011 among homeowners and renters to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, confidence in homeownership as an investment, the current state of their household finances, views on the U.S. housing finance system, and overall confidence in the economy. Data findings for this topic also are based on similar surveys conducted throughout 2011, 2010, and in December 2003. Interviews were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, in coordination with Fannie Mae.

For more detailed findings from the survey, click here.

Fannie Mae exists to expand affordable housing and bring global capital to local communities in order to serve the U.S. housing market. Fannie Mae has a federal charter and operates in America’s secondary mortgage market to enhance the liquidity of the mortgage market by providing funds to mortgage bankers and other lenders so that they may lend to home buyers. Our job is to help those who house America. Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/FannieMae.

How Home Builders Are Appealing to Multiple Generations

What are home builders thinking about? Multi-generational communities designed to meet the needs of Baby Boomers, Gen X and Gen Y families all living in close proximity.

MarketWatch recently showed how home builders are appealing to the various generational families in the market for a new home and how they are meeting all their different needs.

What are your thoughts on generational living? Can you foresee a time when you may have your parents living with you?

HARP 2.0 Has Arrived

What is the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP)?

Announced in the beginning of 2009, HARP is a federal government program created to help 5 million underwater or near-underwater homeowners refinance into a fixed rate loan with a lower monthly payment. However, as of Aug. 31, 2011, only 894,000 borrowers have actually refinanced through HARP.

In October 2011, President Obama announced a makeover to the HARP program with the purpose of reaching more underwater homeowners. The expanded HARP program – also referred to as HARP 2.0 – took effect on March 17, 2012 for eligible borrowers.

How do I find out who holds my mortgage?

There are two eligibility requirements for the HARP program:

1. Your mortgage must be held by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. To “look up” your mortgage, check Fannie Mae. If you can’t find your mortgage there, check Freddie Mac. Your loan must be owned by one of these two choices to be eligible for HARP 2.0.

2. Your loan must have been funded by May 31, 2009.

How do I know if I am eligible for HARP?

You can find out if you are eligible for HARP by contacting me today.

Foreign Buyers Continue Purchasing Cheap U.S. Homes

Foreign consumers purchased $41 billion worth of American houses and apartments during the 12-month period that ended in March 2011, according to the latest statistics from the National Association of Realtors. That’s roughly the same as the previous year showing that foreign buyers continue to see value in U.S real estate.

But add in the $41 billion spent by immigrants who moved here within the last two years and people with visas of more than six months, and the total is $82 billion worth of U.S. residential real estate taken off the market by international buyers, up from $66 billion in the previous year.

The demand for American real estate is so strong that last fall, the National Association of Realtors launched an international version of its property search website. Now, the 4.4 million properties displayed on Realtor.com can be viewed more easily by buyers from practically any place in the world, and in almost a dozen languages.

The top destinations of foreign investors for U.S. real estate purchases are:

1. Florida: 31% of all home purchases in that state are made by foreign buyers, with most coming from Cuba, Haiti, and Colombia.

2. California: 12% of all home purchases (most coming from Mexico, the Philippines, China, India, and Vietnam)

3. Texas: 9% of all home purchases (most coming from Mexico, India, Vietnam, China, and the Philippines)

Boomerang Kids Returning Home

Five million young adults are currently living with their parents, according to the Census Bureau – an astounding one in eight 25- to 34-year-olds.

But it’s no wonder: Unemployment for people in their early twenties now touches 14%, vs. the national average of 8.5%.

New grads are having a harder time finding first jobs, and layoffs are forcing some older twentysomethings, even thirtysomethings, to return home. If your kid comes boomeranging back, use these tips to help smooth the financial transition – for both of you.

1. Consider charging token rent if the kid has income and assigning responsibilities around the home. This establishes that you’re not replaying adolescence and trains new grads to manage financial obligations. Lay out expectations right away, but think about offering an initial grace period on rent.

2. Rather than offering cash outright – which doesn’t teach your kid any lessons and may threaten your own financial security – offer an unemployed kid a hand in finding work. If they just can’t find that perfect job, you may want to suggest that your child take a “for-now” job while continuing to look for the perfect gig.

3. First month’s rent, security deposit, and moving costs add up fast. So encourage your child to have some of every paycheck deposited in a “move-out fund.”

Follow these tips, and you just might get your empty nest back one day.

FHA Increasing Mortgage Insurance Premiums

The Federal Housing Administration announced plans to increase the cost of up-front mortgage insurance premiums beginning on April 1, FHA Acting Commissioner Carol Galante said yesterday in a call with news reporters.

What does this really mean for you the consumer?

It will cost a little bit more upfront to buy a house.

The current upfront mortgage insurance rate is 1% and that will be changed to 1.75% on April 1st.

“After careful consideration and analysis, we determined it was necessary to increase the annual mortgage insurance premium at this time in order to bolster the FHA’s capital reserves and help private capital return to the housing market,” said FHA Commissioner David Stevens in a statement. “This quarter point increase in the annual MIP is a responsible step toward meeting the congressionally mandated 2% reserve threshold, while allowing FHA to remain the most cost effective mortgage insurance option for borrowers with lower incomes and lower down payments.”

If you have an FHA loan you’ve been waiting to refinance, do it now.

If you’re in the market for a new home using an FHA loan, you’ll need to be in a signed contract before April 1st to have the current, lower mortgage insurance fees. If you are thinking it will take you longer to find the right home or you aren’t ready yet, we take run different scenarios to show you how this change will affect your payment.

New Construction Starts Highest Since October 2008

Housing starts rose to 699,000 in January 2012 which is the highest level since October 2008. Prior to the announcement, Econoday was predicting 657,000 – 675,000 housing starts for January. This is a great sign for the real estate market showing builders are regaining confidence.

In fact, homebuilder confidence in the single-family homes market increased for the fifth consecutive month in February, reaching a four-year high.  “This is the longest period of sustained improvement we have seen in the HMI since 2007, which is encouraging,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe in the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo press release.

“Builder confidence has doubled since September as measured by the HMI,” said NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “Given the recent improvements in new home starts and the increasing number of markets included in the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index, this consistency suggests that the housing market is moving toward more sustainable growth.”

HousingWire is also reporting construction of multifamily housing increased by 14% to an annualized rate of 175,000 in January and building permits inched up 0.7% to an adjusted rate of 676,000.

Vacancy Rates Drop to Lowest Since 2006

The national vacancy rate among single-family non-rental homes fell to 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, according to data released Tuesday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

That’s down from 2.7 percent at the beginning of last year, and the lowest homeowner vacancy rate since early 2006.

Undoubtedly, the decline in vacancies is an offshoot of fewer foreclosures in 2011 combined with a slight uptick in home sales for the year.

RealtyTrac reports foreclosure starts were down 39 percent from 2010. And while new home sales had their worst showing in recorded history, the National Association of Realtors tracked a 1.7 percent annual increase in existing-home sales.

Paul Diggle, property economist with Capital Economics, says it’s another sign that excess inventory – at least the visible inventory – is slowly but surely being cleared. It

“leaves the visible inventory at a level consistent with house prices bottoming out later in the year,” according to Diggle.

The Census Bureau also reported that the nation’s homeownership rate dropped to 66.0 percent – its lowest level in nearly 14 years – as the housing downturn has eaten away at the share of Americans who are willing and able to own their own home.

The fourth-quarter homeownership rate gave up almost all of the previous quarter’s gain, Diggle noted.

“What’s more, despite median mortgage costs being more affordable than ever and early signs that mortgage credit is becoming more available…the seven-year downturn in homeownership may still have further to run,” he warns.

The flipside, Diggles says, is there are more households in the rented sector and fewer properties lacking tenants, which is helping to drive rents, and therefore landlords’ returns, higher.

He expects rental value growth is to hit 3 percent this year and average rental yields to rise to around 5.5 percent.

With house prices still falling for now, Diggles says it will be a while yet before homeownership is once again seen as an essential part of the American Dream, and that’s despite the fact that owning now seems to make greater financial sense than renting.

The drop in the homeownership rate pushed the share of households in rented accommodations up, from 33.6 percent at the beginning of 2011 to 34.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The ratio of homes in the rental sector that were vacant also fell, to 9.4 percent.

(Homeownership and Vacancy Rates Drop article courtesy of DSNews.com)