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2012 Homes Sales Looking Up

National Association of Realtors has released their latest home sales information and things are looking up.

According to the “Pending Home Sales Index”, homes under contract are up 7.3%, the second straight month with an increase.

This is the first time since the Homebuyer Tax Credit that the Pending Home Sales Index has gone above 100, a great sign for the market. The best part of these figures is the growth is occurring organically through great affordability and job creation.

So what are the sales trends showing? Lower priced homes are moving quickly while the upper end market is still sluggish. New home sales and new construction starts are both up, a great sign for the months ahead.

Through the broader economy, we are seeing increased job growth from 100,000 per month and may even increase to 150,000 jobs created per month, which will continue to grow the real estate market.

For the full interview with Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors Chief Economist, view it below:

Housing Market Sees Signs of Stability: Clear Capital

The housing market may be stabilizing as house prices and REO saturation rates show little change on a quarterly and yearly basis, according to Clear Capital’s most recent Home Data Index.

Nationally, prices rose just 0.3 percent while REO saturation rate was relatively unchanged at 24.6 percent over the most recent quarter, according to Clear Capital data ending in November. Clear Capital measures housing data on a rolling quarter, which compares the most recent four months with the previous three.

“With only a one percent drop in national home prices since January and virtually no change in prices over the last six months, strong evidence suggests the big swings that many market participants are accustomed to could become a thing of the past,” said Dr. Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital.

Villacorta also reiterated a point he and other analysts made at a panel discussion a few days ago at the Five Star MPact Conference and Expo: Market data must be granular to be effective.

“Although many of the nation’s major markets are experiencing no significant movement in prices, there are still several micro markets that are underperforming the overall market due to high levels of REO saturation,” Villacorta said in the Home Data Index.

He continued: “As lien holders continue to process their foreclosures and the flow of REOs continue to come to market, it will be critical for industry participants to ensure they understand the micro economic nature of specific markets.”

Over the recent quarter, prices changed by less than one percentage point in three of four U.S. regions, while the Midwest demonstrated a price increase of 1.2 percent.

The West was the only region to post a decline, falling 0.8 percent over the quarter. This decline is slightly lower than the quarterly price decline reported last month in the region – 1 percent.

“As this improvement comes at the beginning of the winter slow down, it suggests the stubborn quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year declines seen consistently in the hard hit region may be easing,” stated Clear Capital’s report.

The Northeast posted a 0.5 percent increase for the quarter, and the South posted a 0.2 percent increase.

While price changes did not vary drastically from region to region, they also did not vary widely from market to market.

The difference between the No. 1 highest performing market – Washington D.C. – and the 15th highest performing market – Cleveland, Ohio (1.7 percent) was just 3.1 percent.

However, the difference between the top and bottom ranked markets on the list of 15 lowest performing markets was much greater. In the No. 1 spot, Atlanta posted a 9.7 percent decline, while Dallas, at No. 15, posted a 0.4 percent decline.

Atlanta’s decline is likely the result of a decrease in transactions and an increase in distressed properties.

In keeping with Villacorta’s assertion that some markets are underperforming due to high REO saturation rates, Atlanta’s REO saturation rate is 42.8 percent, significantly higher than the national rate of 24.6 percent.

Also notable, Florida, which has seen a 59.1 percent decline in prices since their 2006 peak, has seen a 12 percent decline in REO saturation over the past year.

Additionally, four Florida metro markets – all of which experienced high foreclosure rates and sharp price declines over the past two years – held positions on the list of 15 highest performing markets for the second month in a row. Orlando, Tampa, Jacksonville, and Miami are now seeing rising prices.

Article courtesy of DSNews.com.

Houses Are On Sale Across the Country


InfoGraphic

The graphic depicts pricing of all homes from their ‘peak through current declines’ as per Case Shiller. This index looks at prices in 20 major metropolitan areas.

Each market peaked at different times. Therefore, the InfoGraphic doesn’t cover one segment of time. Here is a site where you can see when each market actually peaked:

http://www.housingviews.com/2011/11/29/how-the-cities-did-in-the-latest-release/how-cities-did-september-2011/

Courtesy of KCMBlog.com.

 

Barclays Analyst Sees Housing Rebound Coming in 2012

Barclays Capital (BCS: 11.52 -4.24%) analyst Stephen Kim predicts a housing recovery buoyed by improving jobs numbers and the fact prices for nondistressed homes will have stabilized without government support.

“In the absence of a government homebuyer incentives, prices for non-distressed home sales have stabilized for almost a year,” Kim said. “This is the most important trend in the housing industry right now, and we are amazed at how little attention it has been getting from the media and the street. This stability on the part of nondistressed prices has occurred despite a very high share of distressed activity and continued declines in overall prices.”

Barclays said recent economic data — including higher job creation in November, housing starts and improved homebuyer traffic — point to some improvement potential in the sector.

In mid-2010, the federal homebuyer tax credit expired, leaving the housing market without training wheels for the first time since the 2008 economic meltdown. Yet, prices in some housing markets remained stable on the back end.

With its new outlook in the market, Barclays upgraded D.R. Horton‘s (DHI: 12.44 -1.97%) stock to buy and raised price targets for D.R. Horton, Lennar (LEN: 19.305 -1.51%),Toll Brothers (TOL: 20.38 -2.63%) and Meritage Homes (MTH: 22.63 -2.16%).

At the same time, the investment bank raised its 2012 earnings-per-share estimates for D.R. Horton, Lennar, Meritage Homes, Pulte (PHM: 6.23 -3.41%) and Toll Brothers, while lowering its estimates for KB Home (KBH: 8.07 -1.22%).

“Thus, the key to timing housing’s recovery depends primarily on when these first-time buyers decide it is safe to buy a house,” Kim concluded.

Courtesy of HousingWire.com.

October Existing-Home Sales Rise, Unsold Inventory Continues to Decline

Washington, DC, November 21, 2011

Existing-home sales improved in October while the number of homes on the market continued to decline, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 1.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million in October from a downwardly revised 4.90 million in September, and are 13.5 percent above the 4.38 million unit level in October 2010.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market has been fairly steady but at a lower than desired level. “Home sales have been stuck in a narrow range despite several improving factors that generally lead to higher home sales such as job creation, rising rents and high affordability conditions. Many people who are attempting to buy homes are thwarted in the process,” he said.

“A higher rate of contract failures has held back a sales recovery. Contract failures reported by NAR members jumped to 33 percent in October from 18 percent in September, and were only 8 percent a year ago, so we should be seeing stronger sales,” Yun added.

Contract failures are cancellations caused by declined mortgage applications, failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price, or other problems including home inspections and employment losses. “Other recent factors include disruption in the National Flood Insurance Program, and lower loan limits for conventional mortgages, which paradoxically force some of the most creditworthy consumers to pay unnecessarily higher interest rates,” Yun said.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.07 percent in October from 4.11 percent in September; the rate was 4.23 percent in October 2010.

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said consumers can increase their odds of obtaining a mortgage by being aware of how credit scores are determined. “If you want to get a mortgage, don’t buy a car or take on new installment debt or credit cards,” he said.

“Pay all your bills on time, maintain old credit lines and don’t use more than 30 percent of your credit limit. Realtors® can help you understand the issues surrounding access to affordable credit, in addition to helping you find the right home and negotiate terms,” Veissi said.

An ongoing positive trend is a steady decline in the number of homes on the market. Total housing inventory at the end of October fell 2.2 percent to 3.33 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 8.3-month supply in September. Inventories have been trending gradually down since setting a record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $162,500 in October, which is 4.7 percent below October 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales typically sold at deep discounts – slipped to 28 percent of sales in October from 30 percent in September (17 percent were foreclosures and 11 percent were short sales); they were 34 percent in October 2010.

“In some areas we’re hearing about shortages of foreclosure inventory in the lower price ranges with multiple bidding on the more desirable properties,” Yun said. “Realtors® in such areas are calling for a faster process of getting foreclosure inventory into the market because they have ready buyers. In addition, extending credit to responsible investors would help to absorb inventory at an even faster pace, which would go a long way toward restoring market balance.”

All-cash sales accounted for 29 percent of purchases in October, little changed from 30 percent in September and 29 percent in October 2010; investors make up the bulk of cash transactions.

Investors purchased 18 percent of homes in October, compared with 19 percent in September and 19 percent in October 2010. First-time buyers accounted for 34 percent of transactions in October, up from 32 percent in September; they were 32 percent in October 2010.

Single-family home sales increased 1.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million in October from 4.31 million in September, and are 13.8 percent higher than the 3.85 million-unit pace one year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $161,600 in October, which is 5.8 percent below October 2010.

Existing condominium and co-op sales were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 in October but are 10.5 percent above the 534,000-unit level in October 2010. The median existing condo price5 was $160,300 in October, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast fell 5.1 percent to an annual level of 750,000 in October but are 1.4 percent above October 2010. The median price in the Northeast was $224,400, down 5.5 percent from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 2.8 percent in October to a pace of 1.10 million and are 19.6 percent higher than October 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $132,800, which is 4.7 percent below a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.1 percent to an annual level of 1.94 million in October and are 14.1 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $145,700, down 1.6 percent from October 2010.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 4.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in October and are 15.5 percent higher than October 2010. The median price in the West was $207,500, which is 1.6 percent below a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

You Need to Work With Experts

In today’s real estate market, it is easy to get confused. There seems to be an overabundance of information and much of it seems to be conflicting. As an example, we offer you two headlines that appeared within 24 hours of each other last week.

National Delinquency Rate Falls to Lowest Level in Three Years

– Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 11/17/2011

Second Consecutive Increase in First Mortgage Default Rates

– Standard & Poors 11/18/2011

(Remember, foreclosures impact home values and the cost of mortgage money. This makes current delinquency rates an extremely important data point.)

Though these headlines seem to be saying opposite things, both are actually correct. Each report was looking at different data points over different periods of time.

In their article regarding the MBA report, DSNews explains:

“Industry data released Thursday indicates the number of borrowers in the United States behind on their mortgage payments is showing signs of improving. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that the national delinquency rate for residential home loans fell to 7.99 percent in the third quarter.”

In their post, S&P claims:

“First mortgage default rates rose from 1.99% in September to 2.08% in October.”

Bottom Line

Make sure you are dealing with local real estate and mortgage professionals. They will help you and your family decipher the hordes of information available so you can truly understand your best options.

Photo credit: http://www.flickr.com/photos/abiesudiono/

New Home Construction on the Rise

According to the latest release from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 653,000. This is 10.9 percent (±1.6%) above the revised September rate of 589,000 and is 17.7 percent (±3.4%) above the October 2010 estimate of
555,000.

Housing starts also saw a marked increase of 16.5% over October 2010 with 628,000 new homes under construction.

While construction is definitely picking up, completed construction saw a small dip in numbers. This was to be expected from the slow construction starts over the last 90 days.

With the increase in building permits and housing starts, we should a continual improvement in completed construction over the next few months.

To read the full press release, visit www.census.gov.

New Home Sales Rose 5.7% in September

New home sales surged 5.7% month over month to 313,000 in September, which was much stronger than the 300,000 expected by consensus after sales slipped 0.3% to 296,000 the month before. Sales in the south and the west reported monthly gains (up 11.2% and 9.7%, respectively), while the northeast and the midwest saw declines (down 4.2% and 12.2%, respectively).

Total new home sales are down 0.9% from last year, on sharp year-over-year declines in the northeast and midwest (down 34.3% and 14%, respectively). The south was up 9.8% over last September while the west was flat. The months’ supply of homes dropped to 6.2 months from 6.6 months in August, and near the 5.5 to 6 month historic average.

The median price fell to $204,400 from $210,900 in August, and is down 9.9% over last September.

Post courtesy of housingviews.com.

Wall Street Journal & Forbes: It’s Time to Buy A Home

We believe very strongly that now is the time to buy a home. Some will say we are just saying this to create real estate transactions and commissions. Because of that, today we will quote what those outside the real estate profession are saying to the people who look to them for financial advice.

The Wall Street Journal

Last week, in an article entitled It’s Time to Buy That House, the WSJ told their subscribers:

“It’s an excellent time to buy a house, either to live in for the long term or for investment income…Houses aren’t the magic wealth creators they were made out to be during the bubble. But when prices are low, loans are cheap and plump investment yields are scarce, buyers should jump.”

In an article two weeks ago, MarketWatch.com (the on-line blog for WSJ) told their readers:

“Now could be the best time in history to buy a home.”

Forbes.com

In a report to their subscribers, Capital Economics reported that:

“The previous declines in house prices and the more recent drop in mortgage rates to record lows have created an unusual situation in which the median monthly mortgage payment is more or less the same as the median rental payment.”

Why is this important? Last week, Forbes explained to their readers:

“If rents simply kept up with inflation at a 3.2% annual increase, a $1,500 rent payment would cost that renter nearly $900,000 over the next 30 years. The same $1,500 payment made to their mortgage would be only $540,000 (because the payments don’t increase with inflation).”

They went on to explain the advantages of homeownership during retirement:

“Even with a dismal 1% growth rate over 30 years, a $300,000 property would appreciate well over $100,000 giving the homeowner an additional nest egg for retirement…

At a time when retirement is becoming much more challenging, an extra $400,000 (or likely more) can make a major difference not to mention the impact of NOT having to pay a mortgage.  How much less would you have to save for retirement if you didn’t pay the mortgage?”

Bottom Line

When the iconic financial newspaper and the iconic financial magazine say that it now makes financial sense to purchase a house, perhaps it’s time to buy a home.

 

Post courtesy of KCMBlog.com